Child poverty is falling in Scotland
Official government data published last week shows child poverty is falling in Scotland. The proportion of children in poverty in Scotland fell from 25% between 2020-2023 to 21% in 2022 to 2025. In the UK as a whole 28% of children were living in poverty across the same period.
Some caution is still required in interpreting these figures - the 2020-23 data only includes two years of data due to disruption to surveys during the coronavirus pandemic, and further years of data will be needed to confirm the trend. This is especially true as a new approach has been taken to developing poverty statistics across the UK. Nevertheless, it is important that we don't ignore what the best available official data is telling us about what is happening to child poverty in Scotland.
Changes to the way poverty statistics are produced across the UK
Welcome changes have been made this year to the way UK and Scottish poverty statistics are produced to better estimate household incomes, and therefore the number of children in poverty.
Administrative DWP data has been used alongside survey data to capture household incomes more accurately. This data linkage has resulted in a revision downwards of the total number of children in poverty (last year, using the previous methodology, the DWP reported that across the UK 4.5 million children were in poverty in the year April 2023 to March 2024. Now, using the new methodology, it reports 4 million for 2023/24 and 2024/25). This data does not yet show the effect of the abolition of the two-child limit on child poverty, which will not be reflected in the official statistics until Spring 2028.
Scottish administrative data isn’t fully linked yet. However, steps have been taken to more accurately reflect Scottish disability benefits and the Scottish child payment. These changes are part of a process, so this year’s Scottish Government statistics are classed as ‘official statistics in development’ rather than 'accredited official statistics’ and more revisions to the data are possible as a result of further upcoming improvements to the way poverty statistics are produced.
In the meantime by looking at the time series of revised three-year figures, also published by the UK government as accredited statistics , we can see that child poverty has fallen in Scotland (and not just as a result of the way the figures have been produced).
We focus here on the three-year average figures in Scotland rather than the single-year figures, as these show trends over time more accurately. It is worth noting however that the latest single year figure (used to measure progress against legally-binding child poverty targets) suggests that the statutory interim child poverty target to reduce child poverty to less that 18% by 2023/24 was met. We are treating this with real caution though, given the variability of single year figures and especially as the rate jumped back to 21% in 2024/25.
Child poverty is policy sensitive
CPAG analysis suggests child poverty is falling because of policy choices that have been made in Scotland. Specifically, this new data shows a fall in child poverty over the period Scottish child payment was rolled out. Scottish child payment is now worth £28.20 per child per week for eligible low-income families across Scotland.
This difference is not just seen in the statistics, but in the impact on the everyday lives of families. Such as Diane, a single parent with two children participating in the Family Finances project, who said:
“I’ll go do a big food shop, fill the freezer...and I know that everything’s covered.”
Or Pixie, a parent of two young children, on affording the essentials for her infant:
“[Scottish child payment] relieved some of the tension, knowing that, like, what [my son] needs at that point is covered… even the price of formula has gone up so much.”
Independent quantitative research reinforces the picture that the Scottish child payment is also preventing food insecurity and deprivation.
Progress made, but too many children are still in poverty
While we can see that policy choices like the Scottish child payment are reducing and preventing child poverty, there is a still a long way to go.
The Child Poverty (Scotland) Act 2017, which was unanimously passed by all of Holyrood’s political parties, requires Scottish Ministers to ensure less than 10% of children are living in poverty by 2030/31. We can see in these latest stats that far too many children – currently one in five - are still growing up in poverty. What is more 75% of these children live in working households.
Further investment must be made to speed up the progress that is being made and, as it stands, the Scottish Government’s final Tackling Child Poverty Delivery Plan is not up to the task. While the plan lays out action across the right drivers - social security, employment and the costs families face – the actions do not go far enough.
To make the progress needed we need far greater investment in our social security system to support all families, whether in work or not. Parents and carers must be supported to enter and sustain work, but even more so there must be access to well-paid, family-friendly jobs in the first place and sufficient childcare to make taking up these jobs possible. Finally, we need to see further action to reduce costs for families, especially the cost of housing (the latest stats show thirty thousand more children are in poverty after housing costs are taken into account than before those costs are accounted for – the cost of housing is pushing children into poverty). You can find more detail on what CPAG believes the next Scottish government needs to deliver in the Manifesto we have published along with other members of the End Child Poverty coalition. If the next Scottish Parliament delivers these changes, we can ensure all children have the childhood they deserve.