‘’Dire” Scottish child poverty forecast must lead to urgent rethink by UK government and more action in Scotland to protect families | CPAG

‘’Dire” Scottish child poverty forecast must lead to urgent rethink by UK government and more action in Scotland to protect families

Published on: 
20 May 2013

The Child Poverty Action Group (CPAG) in Scotland today responded to the publication of new projections of a massive rise in child poverty in Scotland and across the UK, prepared as part of wider UK forecasts by the Institute for Fiscal Studies. The forecast predicts nearly 30% of Scotland’s children will be living in poverty by 2020, up from the latest official figure of 21% (see note 1 below).

The Head of CPAG in Scotland, John Dickie, said:

“UK Ministers must urgently rethink their child poverty strategy and the tax, benefit and jobs policies that not only aren’t working but are creating a child poverty crisis in Scotland and across the rest of the UK. The security of our families and the wellbeing of our children need to move to the top of the Coalition government’s list of priorities.”

Scottish and local government urged to do more to protect families

Mr. Dickie also urged the Scottish Government and local authorities to do more within their powers to protect children from the damaging effect of current UK policies.

“These shocking child poverty forecasts demonstrate why it is so important for Scottish and local government to all within their existing powers to prioritize families in every policy and spending decision they make. We need to see more action to promote a living wage across the public and private sectors, more affordable childcare and early years support and more done to reduce the soaring costs families face. Investing in extending free school meals to ensure every child in Scotland gets at least one healthy meal a day whatever their home circumstances would be one clear way of mitigating the impact of rising child poverty.”

For further details and interviews please contact John Dickie, Head of CPAG in Scotland, on 0141 552 3656 or 07795 340 618.

Notes to Editors

  • Note 1: The IFS figures are available at http://www.ifs.org.uk/comms/r78.pdf. Figures for Scotland can be found on p41 table B.2 Column 1. The proportion of children living in relative child poverty (after housing costs (AHC) are deducted) is forecast to increase from 21.4% in 2011 to 28.4% in 2020 – an increase of seven percentage points). Using the before housing costs (BHC) measure against which Scottish and UK government measure progress toward eradicating child poverty the proportion of children living in poverty in Scotland is forecast to increase from 17.6% in 2011 to 22.7% in 2020 – an increase of five percentage points).
  • Today’s figures update an earlier report published by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) in 2011, which estimated that the government’s changes to tax and benefits announced in the 2010 and 2011 budgets and spending review would increase relative child poverty by 800,000 from 2010 to 2020, and absolute child poverty by 600,000. http://www.ifs.org.uk/comms/comm121.pdf
  • In 1999, Tony Blair made a commitment to halve child poverty by 2010, and eliminate child poverty by 2020. Official figures show that from 1998 to 2010/11, relative low income child poverty was reduced by 1.1 million children to its lowest level in 25 years (BHC – before housing costs are deducted). Absolute child poverty was reduced by 2 million against a previous baseline year of 1998/99, but the absolute poverty line has since been rebased at 60% median household income in the 2010/11. (http://statistics.dwp.gov.uk/asd/index.php?page=hbai)

Relative low income poverty (BHC)


Absolute low income poverty (BHC)


1998/99 (actual)

3.4 million

2010/11 (actual) 2.9 million 2.3 million
New IFS estimate for 2015 2.9 million 3.2 million
New IFS estimate for 2020 3.4 million 3.9 million
Government target for 2020

1.3 million

(based on current population under 18 years)


(based on current population under 18 years)

  • These increases are due to the UK Government’s tax and benefit reforms. As the IFS report states: ‘Tax and benefit reforms introduced since April 2010 can account for almost all of the increases in child poverty projected over the next few years’ (pp. 4) or ‘The result of this policy is that, despite the impact of Universal Credit, the overall impact of reforms introduced since April 2010 is to increase the level of income poverty in each and every year from 2010 to 2020’ (pp. 32).
  • In 2010 the main political parties supported the Child Poverty Act with statutory targets for 2020 and statutory requirement for Government to publish a strategy that explains how progress will be made. http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2010/9/contents
  • The Government measures four dimensions of child poverty for the Child Poverty Act and its targets, and for the Coalition Agreement commitment on child poverty:
    • Relative low income (below 60% median household income)
    • Absolute low income (below 60% median household income help constant at baseline year)
    • Persistent poverty (3 years or longer living below 60% median household income)
    • Material deprivation (from a survey of what families can afford who are below 70% median household income)
  • In April 2013 several significant cuts to tax and benefits came into effect, including:
    • Tax Credits cut - the difference between a recipient’s previous year income and their current year’s income that is disregarded when calculating their final award was reduced from £10,000 to £5,000. This results in a £455m cut for those receiving tax credits. http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/manuals/ccmmanual/ccm1135.html
    • The Bedroom Tax – claimants with social housing tenancies will have their housing benefit penalised for having rooms in excess of new criteria. This results in a £490m cut for those affected claimants of housing benefit.
    • 1% uprating cap on working age benefits and tax credits - The government have altered working-age benefits and tax credit so that instead of rising in April with the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) of the previous September, they are uprated by only 1% for the next three years. For working-age benefits and tax credits, this means a cut of £505m. On current inflation projections from the Office for Budgetary Responsibility, capping benefit uprating at 1% for three years will represent a real terms cut to the value of social security benefits and tax credits of 4% over the period. However, if inflation were to average 4% across the three years of the 1% cap on uprating, then the real terms cut would be 8.4%. If inflation averaged 5% across the three years, the real terms cut would be 11%. The new Governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has indicated he prefers a more flexible target for inflation instead of the current inflexible target of 2%, increasing the possibility that inflation may be allowed to rise. Moreover, the poorer households are hit harder by inflation as they spend a greater proportion of their budgets on basic items such as food, water and fuel, prices of which have risen faster than general inflation in recent years.
  • In the 2012 Budget it was announced that the rate of tax for those earning over £150,000 a year would be reduced from 50% to 45%. This came into effect in April 2013.


  • CPAG is the leading charity campaigning for the abolition of child poverty in the UK and for a better deal for low-income families and children.